Implied Odds is often a concept that many poker players struggle to fully understand. You are most likely to here the term mentioned in situations where a player has caught an unlikely draw for a very high price and states 'implied odds' as their reason for the high price call. Here we will attempt to explain the intricacies behind the mysterious 'Implied Odds'.
The Basics of Implied Odds :-
Implied Odds basically means that you are attaching some value to the future pot size, rather than the amount that is currently in the pot. You are using this future pot size as the basis of your call. This is why it is not an exact science.
The easiest example of Implied Odds is a flat raise at a table full of limpers. If you are due to act behind the flat raise it is usually safe to imply that all the limpers in the pot are going to call. eg 4 Limpers for 100 chips each. The cutoff raises it to 200. You are on the butten and the situation is this 50(SB)+100(BB)+400(limpers)+200(raiser) = 750. To call with regualr pot odds it is 200/950 = 21%. However to call taking into account implied odds it is different: 750(pot so far)+400(limpers calling) = 1150. To call would be 200/1350 = 14.8%.
Well that in itself makes a big difference. If you have a pocket pair, the chance of spiking your set on the flop is 12.2%. This already is starting to look a lot more attractive.
If we compare it to an example of no limpers, pot is 50(SB)+100(BB)+200(raiser) = 350. Cost of calling = 200/550 = 36.4%. You cant imply any callers from the blinds, so this is it 36.4% COST. Now those low pocket pairs dont look so attractive now do they.
Lets Crank it up a level :-
Let us look at a very active pot pre-flop 100+200+600+600+600+600 = 2700. Two of the 600 betters only have roughly 1900 left after their pre-flop bet. Now you are looking at rubbish (7,2 offsuit). A routine fold yes? Well lets look. Cost of call 600/3300 = 18.2%. Chances of spiking 2 pair or trips on the flop is 7.2%. Not very attractive. But...
Do you think both players with 1900 are going to lay their hand down with a pot of 3300 sat in the middle. Probably not, especially if you check it to them. Therefore we imply some odds... we imply that if we hit our cards, the win-able pot is likely to be 3300+1900 = 5200. Therefore we can imply our odds as 600/5800 = 10.3% ... looking a little more attractive. If from their previous play you are convined that neither player will back off the pot with 1900 left, we can say that the "win-able" pot is 3300+1900+1900 = 7100, therefore we apply the value as 600/7700 = 7.8% WOW, we have almost manufactured a justification for calling with 72 off in this situation.
What we need to appreciate here is what we are saying is, we definately WILL win the pot if we hit our 2 pr or trips. Obviously you should be slightly cautious in that case. But the next time your raise gets called with rags and your KK gets snapped when you go all-in remember this. If he has labelled you as very much a never-wavering TAG player he can probably imply that he will get your whole stack if he hits the flop, because he knows you simply wont contemplate putting him on rags or backing off when the flop comes low.
So, what is safe to imply and what is not :-
Well one of the safest hands for implied odds is a low/middle pocket pair. If there are several pre-flop raises you can assume there will be some action on the flop. If you spike your set then this will nearly always be a very safe hand to commit the rest of your stack on. This doesnt mean with only one very conservative player in the pot who raises it 5 times the blind pre-flop that this is good value. Remember the examples above. You have to be able to imply that the total winnable pot is enough to justify the initial call cost VS the cost of hitting the set.
What isnt really that safe is low, not connectable off-suits. You're very rarely going to have a decent post-flop draw, and if you spike the 2 pair they are a little vunerable to being counterfitted.
Implied Odds with post flop draws :-
Now, implied odds arent always something which will improve the odds of calling. If we look at some standard draws from the flop. If you have flopped a flush draw, you may quite happily call a pot size bet feeling that you have the pot odds to call. Well you would be almost right. Now if the player was all in for just less than the size of the pot, then by all means you have the odds to call. However, what about if he bets the same amount, but isnt all-in, well here is a very common mistake. You can usually imply that he will bet again on the turn, therefore you arent really getting the odds to draw 2 cards as you think, what you are getting is odds to draw 1 card, and you therefore should be folding because of implied odds.
This article was written in conjuction with my friends at Surfers Poker who have several pro-players on their team.
I hope this helps in understanding the beast that is Implied Odds. Now dont all go running out there and calling with every 72 offsuit you see
